Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for EMNATI-22 in Madagascar from 16 Feb 2022 18:00 UTC to 19 Feb 2022 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for EMNATI-22

in Madagascar

19 Feb 2022 00 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC
Primary source
WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Beta version

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone EMNATI-22 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Glide number:	TC-2022-000175-MDG
Exposed countries	Madagascar
Exposed population	2.2 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	204 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.5 m (22 Feb 11:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)
Landfall	between 22 Feb 2022 00:00 - 23 Feb 2022 00:00 in Madagascar

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	157 km/h	0.5 m	n.a.	2.5
Overall	204 km/h	0.5 m	n.a.	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

157 km/h Current Max.

Up to 2.9 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	16 Feb 2022 18:00	176	1.3 million	No people	Mauritius
2	17 Feb 2022 00:00	185	2.1 million	No people	Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
3	17 Feb 2022 12:00	167	10.4 million	80 thousand	Madagascar
4	18 Feb 2022 00:00	148	14.9 million	220 thousand	Madagascar
5	18 Feb 2022 12:00	176	17.7 million	2.3 million	Madagascar
6	19 Feb 2022 00:00	157	19.1 million	2.9 million	Madagascar

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	16 Feb 2022 18:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	-14.1, 68.4
2	17 Feb 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-14.2, 67.8
3	17 Feb 2022 12:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-13.9, 64.2
4	18 Feb 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-13.4, 63
5	18 Feb 2022 12:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	-14.4, 61.3
6	19 Feb 2022 00:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	-16, 59.5
6	19 Feb 2022 12:00	Category 1	148	no people	750000 people	-16.9, 58
6	20 Feb 2022 00:00	Category 2	157	no people	990000 people	-17.6, 56.5
6	20 Feb 2022 12:00	Category 2	167	no people	460000 people	-18.1, 55.3
6	21 Feb 2022 00:00	Category 2	176	no people	8.7 million people	-18.4, 53.9
6	22 Feb 2022 00:00	Category 2	157	2.9 million people	16.5 million people	-19.2, 50.6
6	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	14.5 million people	-21.2, 46.6	Madagascar
6	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	-23.9, 43.1

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Madagascar

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Toamasina	Madagascar
Antananarivo	Madagascar
Fianarantsoa	Madagascar

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Ambositra	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	30000 people
Fianarantsoa	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	160000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Vatomandry	VAT	12	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3800
Atsinanana	ILK	10	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3200
Mahanoro	VVB	5	Civ.	Unpaved	No	4400
Fianarantsoa	WFI	1115	Civ.	Paved	No	4100

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Vatomandry	MGVAT	Madagascar
Mahanoro	MGVVB	Madagascar

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.5m in Andranotsara, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 22 Feb 2022 11:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (143 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 6 of 19 Feb 2022 00:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	22 Feb 2022 11:00	Andranotsara	Madagascar	0.5
	22 Feb 2022 11:00	Masomeloka	Madagascar	0.4
	22 Feb 2022 13:00	Ambinanivolo	Madagascar	0.4
	22 Feb 2022 10:00	Ambodiharina	Madagascar	0.3
	22 Feb 2022 12:00	Ambalavontaka	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Andanivato	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Ambatojoby	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Andramy	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Marotaola	Madagascar	0.3
	22 Feb 2022 10:00	Mahanoro	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Majunga	Madagascar	0.3
	22 Feb 2022 12:00	Nosy-Varika	Madagascar	0.3
	22 Feb 2022 22:00	Tamotamo	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Marofototra	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Belavenoka	Madagascar	0.3
	22 Feb 2022 08:00	Marosiky	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Boanamary	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 05:00	Vohitramposina	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Manehoko	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 08:00	Ambohidara	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 12:00	Ambahy	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 13:00	Anasindrano	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Soahanina	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Ankoakala	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Ambato	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 23:00	Soahazo	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Ananalava	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Tambohorano	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Ambatomilahy	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Ankatrafay	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Antandrokomby	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Marovazha	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Antsafy	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Onara	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 05:00	Manakambahiny	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 10:00	Androrangambo	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Manampea	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Appontement	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Ankoadavo	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Ambatomainty	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Tsilambana	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Ampasitsilavitra	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Madirotelo	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Ampitilova	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 07:00	Maintinandry	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 06:00	Vatomandry	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Moravano	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 13:00	Ambohitsara	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Baly	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Ampanihy	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Manomba	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Maintirano	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Andemba	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Bevoay	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Matahibory	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Masokoamena	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Analalava	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Marokitrana	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Amboaboaka	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 19:00	Reharaka	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Ambondrombe	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Feb 2022 22:00	Mahatsara	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 07:00	Seranandavitra	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 14:00	Andranomahitsy	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Ambato	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Antanamazava	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Antanimandry	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Tanambao	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Anjabe	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Andranomena	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Andranovoribe	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Bobasakoa	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Andrafialava	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Ambozaka	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 03:00	Amboditafara	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 03:00	Kalomalala	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Andramasay	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Ambaramidada	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Katsepy	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Belailay	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Antsianitia	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Ankinganifahatelo	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 14:00	Itenina	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 14:00	Loharano	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 14:00	Mahela	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Ampapamena	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Antanambao Samaka	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Maromokotra	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Tsaratanana	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Ankinganomby	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Anjiajia	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Mandrony	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 03:00	Ampitabe	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Fadrina	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Ampasibe	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Ankazobe	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Ampombilava	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Andriana	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 16:00	Ankarimbary	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 16:00	Savana	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Mailakapasy	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Antaribao	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 05:00	Ambila-Lemaitso	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Nosy Faly	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Ampandrano	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Marovato	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Ampasimpilily	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Ambalatsingy	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Marosakoa	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 03:00	Ampanotoamaizina	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 02:00	Vavony	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Ankazomalemy	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Bejongoro	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Andopitaly	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Ambatoxavavy	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Andrafia	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Ambanisanjo	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Ambatobe	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Tanilahy	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Ampalaza	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Bevoalavo Est	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Antohgo	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 11:00	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 00:00	Ankarefo	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 02:00	Tampina	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 14:00	Ambalavontaka	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 14:00	Mananjary	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 11:00	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Anjajavy	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Loharano	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Anorotsangana	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.